When will petrol prices go down?
Nobody can reliably say when petrol prices will go down. UK pump prices follow the global price of oil and refined fuel, the exchange rate and the tax set by the government, and none of these can be predicted with any confidence. What we can explain is why petrol prices are going up or down, what has happened in 2026, which tax changes are already scheduled, and how to pay less now. The UK average for petrol is 174.2p a litre today, and diesel is 199.2p.
Why are petrol prices going up?
A litre of fuel is made up of fuel duty, VAT, the wholesale cost of the fuel and the retailer's margin. Our guide to what makes up the price of petrol breaks this down. Prices change when any of these parts change.
- Crude oil. Petrol and diesel are made from crude oil, so the global oil price is the biggest single influence on what retailers pay.
- The pound against the dollar. Oil and refined fuel are traded in US dollars. If the pound weakens, fuel costs more in pounds even when the dollar price stays the same.
- Refining margins. Supply and demand for refined petrol and diesel can move separately from crude oil. This is one reason diesel and petrol prices can move apart, which we cover in our guide to diesel and petrol prices.
- Retailer margins. Each forecourt decides how much to charge on top of its costs. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) monitors these margins across the market.
- Fuel duty and VAT. Duty is a fixed amount per litre set by the government. VAT is 20% of the final price, so it rises and falls with the pump price.
Changes in wholesale costs don't reach the pump straight away, because a station is often still selling fuel it bought earlier.
What has happened to fuel prices in 2026?
Prices rose sharply after the conflict involving Iran began on 28 February 2026. The RAC has linked the rise to the conflict and to the disruption of oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
On 28 September 2026, the RAC reported that the UK average price of diesel had reached 199.18p a litre. That beat the previous record of 199.09p, set in June 2022. The RAC said diesel had risen by 56.8p a litre since the conflict began, and unleaded petrol by 41.3p, to 174.13p.
On 2 October 2026, the RAC reported that average diesel had passed £2 a litre for the first time, at 200.01p, with petrol at 174.71p. By 11 October, diesel had dipped just below £2 again, at 199.90p, according to RAC figures reported by Auto Express. The RAC said diesel was still around 57p a litre higher than before the conflict, and petrol around 42p higher.
In late September, the RAC said only a sustained fall in oil prices, over several weeks rather than days, would lead to cheaper prices at the pump.
Is fuel duty going up?
Under the current law, yes. The main rate of fuel duty on petrol and diesel is 52.95p a litre until 31 December 2026. This includes a temporary 5p cut first introduced in March 2022. According to GOV.UK, the scheduled rates are:
| Period | Fuel duty per litre |
|---|---|
| Until 31 December 2026 | 52.95p |
| From 1 January 2027 | 55.95p |
| From 1 March 2027 | 57.95p |
These dates could change. The government has said it will confirm the final rates at Budget 2026, which takes place on 28 October 2026. Because VAT is charged on top of duty, a 3p rise in duty adds about 3.6p to the pump price if nothing else changes. Our Budget 2026 tracker follows what happens to prices around the announcement.
Will petrol prices go down soon?
We don't make forecasts, and you should treat any confident prediction with caution. Oil prices can move quickly on news about conflict, supply and the world economy. Even when wholesale prices fall, it can take a while for forecourts to pass the fall on.
A few things are worth watching. If oil prices fall and stay lower for several weeks, pump prices usually follow. A stronger pound helps too. Changes to fuel duty at the Budget will feed straight into the price.
How can I pay less for fuel now?
You can't control the oil price, but you can control where you buy. Prices vary a lot between forecourts in the same area.
- Compare before you fill up. The gap between the cheapest and dearest station in a town can be several pence a litre.
- Try a supermarket. Supermarket petrol averages 171.7p a litre, against 175.3p elsewhere. That is £1.80 on a 50-litre fill.
- Avoid motorway services unless you have to stop. Our guide to motorway services fuel prices explains why they charge more.
- Buy standard E10 if your car is approved for it. Super unleaded costs more. See our E10 vs E5 guide.
- Use less fuel. Smooth driving, correct tyre pressures and lighter loads all help. Our guide to using less fuel has more.
Know when prices drop near you
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Sources
- RAC Fuel Watch
- RAC: Price of diesel reaches record high (28 Sep 2026)
- RAC: Diesel price hits record high (2 Oct 2026)
- GOV.UK: Amended fuel duty rates for 2026 to 2027
- GOV.UK: Chancellor's letter on the Budget 2026 date
- Live prices: the UK government's Fuel Finder scheme, via Cheapest Fuel. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.